Friday, 30 April 2010

Why aren't people scared of not voting?

After last night's debate and the aftermath it looks like we are all starting to get our heads around the task in hand. 

Cleggster seems to have lost his way and so Cameron who does carry the weight of the world on his shoulders came out on top.

The reality according to Mervyn King is that the swingeing cuts needed to get the economy back on course will mean that whoever gets in next will not be voted in again for a lifetime. We just don't seem to be able to get our heads around this. Perhaps it is because the numbers are too great and that when you quote in the trillions for debt we lesser mortals just cannot get our heads around what that means.The Institute for Fiscal Studies warned on Tuesday that all three parties had been hiding from voters the full details of their plans to cut the deficit. It said that the scale of cuts following the election could be the deepest since comparable records began just after World War Two.

What does that mean for us? 

The economics that we just can't get our heads around is the housing one. For some reason the rise in price of houses is not a factor that is reported as part of inflation figures. So, for the past few years we have been 'told' that we have low inflation, low in comparative interest rates, high growth and as Brown put it " No return to Boom and Bust" because he had the model right. WRONG: we have had the biggest boom and bust for a century. Anyone that votes for Brown and insists that Tories would have run the country into the ground as labour has is misinformed and midguided on tory policies. The general view is that it is still 'cool' to vote labour and that to vote tory is somehow siding with the rich people. Of course they all get things wrong, of course most people don't sign up to all the policies but as a reasoned human being (and plenty of what Clegg and Brown say they stand for absolutely tick my box) but the grave reality now is this. Lib Dems can't get in so do you vote for more of teh same (Labour has been having a go for 13 years and not got it right) or give the other side a go. It is really as simple as that. What I have found interesting in letting my feelings and opinions about politics out is that far from Tories being the bigotted ones it is in fact labour supporters who refuse to discuss, when challenged cannot back up their arguments and then retreat with a 'well they are all as bad as each other so I don't care'. It's amazing. This is probably the biggest election of our lifetime and still people aren't turned on to it.

Back to housing. The BBC this morning showed pictures of vast numbers of empty houses in Ireland built in the boom years and never occupied. We now pay for the cost of these as they no doubt have bankrupt owners. The housing bubble seems to have recovered and we are only 10% down on the peak 2007 levels. People say this is OK and people are buying again. What do I think? Wrong! Back in 2007 the country did not mention the high risks we were taking. Even when Lehman's collapsed no-one wanted to talk about disaster because it would then become self fulfilling. The same is now true of the housing market.Let's not talk about it. Let's hope the intelligent estate agents are right.Well I think we should get real.It's all a bubble and apart from a few people who bought at the wrong time with too little cash then prices are held up by false paper money that just needs wiping out.

Long term trends are now easy to find so you can work this out from raw data held on government websites. The trends show that house prices are still overvalued by 20% to their long term average. This is an average and in fact there is a case that perhaps they have to double dip another 30% before they recover to 20% below where they are now. Yes a lot of people will feel some pain. But what pain is that? Is that the pain of a nation in debt to the tune of having to make a plan to save £34,000,000,000 (£34 thousand million) a year just to halve the deficit we have. Of course it is so just get ready for the ride. Alternatively put that off so that when it comes it is even more painful. Gordon wants to carry on spending and so we will feel the pain later, and of course, much like going to the doctor, the longer you leave it the worse it gets. Gordon borrows £1 in every £4 he spends right now. That will stop either with a  different government or when our creditors (or in the case of Greece the IMF) refuse to give us any more money. Black outs, food riots, civil unrest, no thanks.

Posted via email from steve & sarah rushton

Saturday, 7 November 2009

Response to Simon Heffer (Telegraph Octover 2009)

If Simon Heffer is unconvinced by the man made global warming argument for eating less beef then perhaps he would consider instead the facts of our rapidly growing global population, world water shortages and a finite amount of land to be sufficient reasons for at least moderating his meat intake rather than inciting us all to indulge. These facts alone are very real threats to world food security. Also adding to the pressure is the large number of people in countries such as China trying to move up the food chain, increasing demand for more grain intensive livestock products. Animal production does not make the most effective use of our land and water supplies, with grain-fed cattle requiring approximately 7kg of grain to produce a 1kg gain in live weight (compared to around 2kg in poultry) and 15 cubic metres of water per kg compared to around 3 cubic metres per kg for grain type crops. If some of the land used to produce meat for us greedy, overweight Westerners was used for crops instead, more people could get fed and if we also ate less of the meat produced ourselves, this would mean more to go around and help people become better nourished in the developing world.

Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute suggests in his book ‘Plan B 4.0: Mobilising to save Civilisation’ that ‘Those of us with diets heavy in fat-rich livestock products can do both ourselves and civilisation a favour by moving down the food chain’. Thus we don’t necessarily all have to go as far as become vegan to affect a noticeable change, but we can make a real difference by committing to a reduction in the amount of grain fed meat we eat (which we already know is too much per head to be healthy). When we do eat meat, we should resist the temptation to over do it (no more over sized steaks!), watch the waste and make sure it is from a home grown extensively reared animal and grass fed if that is what nature intended. Making these less selfish, more sustainable choices would help us move towards a more level pegging on the food chain across the globe. The NHS would also benefit and if Simon Heffer is wrong about the whole man made global warming thing (although of course we’d all love him to be right), then thankfully less harm will have been done. One thing is for certain. This is about humanity and civilisation and nothing to do with any international anti-capitalist conspiracy theory, whatever that may be.